The year is set on a hot day in London in July 2024
Gai Corbelis/Almi
The expectations of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels are all confirmed, but after the confirmation of the new data, 2024 has been confirmed, which was the first calendar year to see the average temperature which was important. Dissolve the boundary.
Last year was the hottest in human history, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared on January 10, in the latest Stark warning that humanity was pushing the Earth’s climate into the unwanted area.
The average global temperature for the year first exceeded 1.5 ° C from the pre-industrial base line, the agency also confirmed, temporarily dissolved the threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
The evaluation of WMO is calculated using the average global temperature in six datasets, used to provide a pre-industrial base line with a period of 1850 to 1900. The temperature datasets collected by various agencies and institutions around the world vary slightly, mainly due to how the sea temperature has been measured and analyzed over decades, due to this difference. Some of those datasets come just below the 1.5 ° C mark, but others are well above.
The UK Met office weather service inserts an average temperature of 2024 at 1.53 ° C above pre-industrial levels with an error of 0.08 ° C error. It is 0.07 ° C above 2023, the hottest year on record. Meanwhile, the European Union’s climate change service Copernicus has a temperature of 2024 at 1.6 ° C above pre-industrial levels, 0.12 ° C from a record of 2023.
Berkeley Earth, a Climate Research Group in California, Detects an increase of 1.62 ° CThe second time in its dataset has a violation of 1.5 ° C after 2023. temperature. temperature. Data from NASA The temperature rise at 1.47 ° C above the pre-industrial levels reduces the increase in temperature, and the US national ocean and atmospheric administration Detects 1.46 ° C growth above pre-industrial levelsWMO finds an average increase of 1.55 ° C in six datasets, with a margin of an error of 0.13 ° C.
Scientists agree that the increase in temperature was mostly caused by human-causing climate change and continuity of an EL neeno weather patterns, which increases global temperature. But the heat scale and perseverance have shocked many experts who expected to reduce the temperature after the end of Al Nino in May 2024. Instead, they remained at a record level throughout the year.
The world’s oceans have been most affected, the sea surface temperature remains at the record level for most time of 2024, playing havoc with marine ecosystems. This year did not bring any lack of extreme weather on the ground, with severe heatwaves, sharp fall in polar snow, deadly floods and uncontrollable forest fire. “It was a year when the effects of climate change are correct on the entire planet,” says David kingThe former Chief Scientific Advisor to the Government of UK and the founder of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group.
Technically, the target of limiting the Paris Agreement to below the average of 20-year is calculated using an average of 20-year, so the same year above the threshold does not indicate the formal violation of the target. But given the speed of warming in recent years, many scientists say the goal of long -term Paris is now out of reach.
“Suddenly new records set in 2023 and 2024 include other evidence that recently seems to grow faster than the recent global warming,” Robert Rohde In a statement in the sense of Berkeley. “Is the increased global warming is a temporary change or part of a new long -term trend remains to be seen. Although already the Paris Agreement is inaccessible to stay below 1.5 ° C, and the long -term average will pass this milestone within the next five to 10 years. ,
In a briefing on 9 January, Samantha Burges In Copernicus, reporters were told that it is possible to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement now. He said, “There is a high probability that we will look at the long -term average of 1.5 ° C and the limit of the Paris Agreement,” he said.
Duo chan At the University of Southampton, the UK has helped develop a new global dataset, DCENT, which say they use a state -of -the -art technology to produce more accurate historic base line for warming levels. This new dataset suggests that the global average temperature for 2024 was above 1.66 ° C from pre-industrial levels, saying, although it is not involved in WMO’s calculation.
As a result, Chan also believes that the 1.5 ° C target is probably out of reach. “We need to be ready for a wide range, and not the only goal of 1.5 ° C is the only goal we should have,” they say. But he insisted that it should be an important moment to be more ambitious in cutting emissions. “It’s too early to give up,” they say.
The approach to 2025 is still not clear. There are initial indications that global sea surface temperature has finally begun to cool to the expected levels. “This is a good sign that the heat is spreading from the least sea surface,” said the Burges. Meanwhile, after months expected, a La Nina phase has eventually developed into the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which must reduce global temperature in 2025.
But Chan has warned that the world may have experienced a step change in warming if the temperature follows the pattern of previous E Nino events. “Every time we look at a large El Nino event … global warming is originally brought to a new level,” they say, suggest that 2024 can be the first in many years where the average can be averaged in many years. The temperature can exceed 1.5 ° C.
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(Tagstotransite) climate change