According to the budget document, the total receipts for FY26 are estimated at ₹ 50.65 lakh crore, of which revenue receipts are ₹ 34.20 lakh crore. Capital receipts are ₹ 16.44 lakh crore, slightly higher than the revised estimates of FY25.
The total expenditure is ₹ 50.65 lakh crore, which marks an increase of ₹ 47.16 lakh crore from the revised figure of FY25. Meanwhile, the estimate of fiscal deficit is ₹ 15.68 lakh crore, which maintains the fiscal discretion according to previous years.
Loss and expenditure trends
The revenue deficit is estimated at ₹ 5.23 lakh crore, the revised FY25 figure is estimated by a decline of ₹ 6.10 lakh crore.
Effective capital expenditure is set to 15.48 lakh crores, which reflects a constant push for the development of infrastructure.
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The primary deficit in FY25 is expected to fall from 4.31 lakh crores, declining by ₹ 2.92 lakh crore.
Direct tax collection
For FY24, direct tax collection, 19.45 lakh crore, initial budget estimates increased by 6.6%. This development was given fuel:
Personal Income Tax: Revised estimates saw an increase of 13.4% on initial estimates.
Securities transaction tax (STT): 15.84% higher than budget.
Corporate Tax: Stay stable in accordance with estimates.
For FY25, the government set a target of ₹ 22.07 lakh crore. By January 12, the collections were already hit by ₹ 20.64 lakh crore (93.54%), operated by:
STT: Crossing the target of its ₹ 37,000 crore, reached 44,538 crore (120%of the target).
Corporate tax: ₹ 9.71 lakh crore collected (95% ₹ 10.20 lakh crore).
Personal Income Tax: ₹ 10.45 lakh crore was collected, with 90.87% of the target of 90 11.50 lakh crore.
Indirect tax collection
While impressive growth in direct tax collection was shown, indirect taxes retreated with expectations. The target of ₹ 16.18 lakh crore for FY25, only ₹ 7.82 lakh crore (48.32%) was collected till January.
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CGST: ₹ 4.41 lakh crore collected (48.44%of the target).
Customs Duties: ₹ 1.16 lakh crore (49%of ₹ 2.37 lakh crore).
Excise duty: ₹ 1.50 lakh crore collected (47.31% ₹ 3.19 lakh crore).
Cesses: Crore 74,324 crore collected (49.22%of the target).
Trends and challenges in indirect tax collection
The reduction in indirect taxes is not unprecedented. In FY24, indirect tax goals were revised below ₹ 15.28 lakh crore.
10% decline in excise duty collection compared to initial estimates.
6% below amendment in customs.
Experts credits this underperformance for a slow economy and weak consumption pattern. GST, being a consumption-driven, has a direct connection with the trends of demand.
Similarly, the recession in manufacturing has affected customs, excise and cess collection.
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