Is a dragon-elassent dance desirable for India?
Or, will it turn into Danse Macabre?
It is difficult to guess what China really wants for India. With all its tiger diplomats and rapid aggressive talk, China remains one of the most complex countries in terms of decoding diplomacy. While Foreign Minister Wang Yi wants “a cooperative partnership between the dragon and the elephant”, China’s new defense budget for 2025-26 is $ 249 billion.
“The Chinese Army faces tough challenges in the safety of national sovereignty and regional integrity,” says Vu Qian, a Ministry of Defense Ministry spokesman. After Russia and Mongolia, China shared its third longest land border with India, which is 3,380 km in length. And this border has not been the calm of China.
Indication from China
With an increase of 7.2% in its annual defense budget – and its public justification – Chenna has sent significant signals, which is the most important to the United States. With the US selling arms to Taiwan, Wu said, “Many pieces of American weapon will not change the unavoidable demise of Taiwan independence.” After the announcement of retaliation on the US, which has become effective, the statement is in the sink with the hard stand of Beijing.
A similar firm stance was displayed during the line of real control (LAC) conflict with India, which reached some forms of resolution at the end of last year. Beijing did not soften the site of bloody clashes between two militants, Ladakh’s Dipsing and Demachok areas in 2020 in 2020.
Despite the personal public diplomacy of PM Modi and President Xi Jinping’s summit, the struggle with lacquer seriously detailed India-China relations. Bilateral relations should have experienced a four -year long freeze experience. The biggest lesson, Beijing does not blink the eyelid. It cannot tolerate it.
India should be cautious
Therefore, it is important for India to walk carefully. The Chinese Foreign Minister is correct when he says Beijing and New Delhi “should work with each other instead of guarding each other”. Beijing, however, sits more comfortably to the guard positions and to match its appearance, New Delhi needs to be bleed with resources. As against China’s Rs 21.9 lakh crore, India’s 2025-26 defense budget is Rs 6.81 lakh crore. India’s border infrastructure is against China. This asymmetry is a difficult reality that no one in the government can ignore or ignore. Within a global economic recession, the option to increase military expenses at the cost of other regions – money is always limited – what is not easy.
China insisted that India is not a significant security threat. Nevertheless, allegedly, it has greatly increased its surveillance capabilities on India. A new large phased array radar (LPAR) with a range of over 5,000 km to track India’s missile tests has been deployed in the Yunnan province near Myanmar border. Not only this, the Chinese military commander is saying the military preparations of the People’s Liberation Army, saying, “Military tension on many fronts, border with India and Taiwan Strait”.
This assures the latest statement of India’s Army Chief, “The danger of two-face is a reality.” China certainly offers a security concern for India. But Beijing also reiterated that border issues should not tarnish overall bilateral relations with India.
So what should we do?
‘Neighborhood first’
There are no simple solutions, but the Government of India’s policy of putting “Neberhood First” can serve as a guide theory. A fierce, although amidst zero-zero trade war with the US, China aims to strengthen its economic stature within and outside the global south. How India can align its own goals, its strong neighbor demands an unnatural demand on our ambition-capacity equation.
Increasing lack of India-China bilateral trade also provides insight. While India exports raw materials such as castor oil, iron ore, light nephtha, pe-zilin, shrimp, etc. to China, we import machinery and electronics (including important parts) from them. We should worry not only the volume but also the nature of this deficit before taking any strategic decisions about China. Away away from importing goods from China, one step can work in a short term towards importing capital. India can invite more Chinese FDIs to expand its cross-sector infrastructure capabilities.
India’s best stakes are currently, to align its safety and economic goals for the purpose of China’s “hegmanism and politics of power”. This is neither easy nor risk-free. The success of India’s diplomatic skills will rest on what we have recently said: “China is ready to work with India”.
Let’s work with China and for India.
,The author is a Delhi -based writer and academic.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
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