RBI likely to cut rates between global tariff heat on April 9 – CNBC TV18

As global trade tension has increased due to tariff hike, now the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is drew attention to the steps of the next policy, it is scheduled for 9 April. According to the CNBC-TV18 poll of top bankers, economists and bond dealers, RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects to accept these global risks, but focuses on domestic factors.

Most experts believe that RBI may cut interest rates in April and June to support the economy before cutting global issues. All the respondents of the poll are expected to cut the 25-base point (BPS) rate in the upcoming policy meeting. Along with cooling inflation, economic growth slow, crude oil prices fall, and American bond yield needs, many believe that RBI now has room to work.

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However, there is some debate on the tone bringing RBI. About half hopes that the Central Bank is expected to move to the ‘adjustment’ stance, which means that it will be more open to cut forward rates. But 40% feel that RBI may stick to a ‘neutral’ stance, keeping its options open due to uncertainty in global markets.

Most believe that the terminal repo rate – this cycle can reach the interest rate in this cycle – this cycle can be fixed at about 5.5%in this cycle, suggests.

On the liquidity front, no surprise is expected. The RBI has already taken steps to reduce tight liquidity using devices such as open market operations (OMOS), currency swaps, and prolonged tenure repo auctions, and it can continue with these measures. More liquidity moves will be seen as positive by the market.

Also read: Nomura hopes RBI will cut rates in April, but fed to wait to DEC

According to economists, high global tariffs can affect India’s GDP growth from 30 to 60 basis digits. But for now, most expect the RBI to leave its development forecast unchanged, although some are minor downgrade.

On inflation, which is currently lower than the RBI estimates, 60% of experts are not expected to have any changes, while 40% believe that RBI can reduce its inflation forecast by about 4-4.1%.

Also read: Economists Trim Growth Forecast, RBI cut rate cuts

Overall, the tone of the policy is expected to be destroyed, as the central bank balances global risks with the need to support domestic development. With inflation in control, the RBI may start doing ground work to cut forward rates in the coming months.

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