Irwin, California., 4 February, 2025 – Computer models explain how human-powered climate change will dramatically overhala to significant nutritious cycles in the sea. In Action of National Science AcademyThe University of California, Irwin researchers reported that marine nutrient cycle – required to maintain the ocean ecosystem – are changing in an unexpected manner because the planet continues to heat up.
“Model studies have suggested that when the ocean is heated it becomes more stratified, which can remove parts of the surface ocean of nutrients,” Adam Martini, Earth System Science and Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Professor of Biology And one of the key authors of the study said. Although models suggest a connection between sea temperature and surface ocean nutrients, this is the first study to confirm the effects of climate change on the cycles of nutrients.
The team led by graduate student Skylar Grace analyzed the data of 50 years of nutrients from the ocean collected as part of the Global Ocean Ship-based hydrographic investigation program (warehouseHe came to know that in the last half century, phosphorus has fallen a major decline – a nutrient that plays an important role in the health of seafood webs in the oceans of the southern hemisphere.
“The cascading effects on the food web can have,” Grace said, who explained how Plankton – Microorganisms that build many sea food webs bases – rely on phosphorus as a food source. “When phytoplinkton has a low phosphorus, they become less nutritious, which can affect the growth rate of zoplakton and fish.”
Surprisingly, nitrate concentrations – a nutrient that was expected to fall in the team – appears to remain stable. Nitrate is important for the functioning of the ecosystem, so that it is not in the decline is a good sign, Martini explained. Nevertheless, nitrate concentrations may still decrease in future because climate varies. “But we don’t know – these are just speculation,” he said.
Martini emphasized the importance of programs like Go-Ship when it comes to science like this; Without the seafare mission collecting empirical data on marine ecosystems, it would not be a way to confirm whether the forecast of the climate model is actually happening. For example, the model has estimated that by now there will be a decline in nitrate levels in sea water, but direct comments show that this is not the case.
“It is really difficult to display long -term climatic effects on the ocean in general, because there is too much variability, and our now is part of a small collection of study that displays these long -term effects,” Martini Said. “You can rely on long -term trends performed in the ocean chemistry.”
Subsequently, the team wants to determine how the maritime ecosystem is affected in both hemispheres, changing the nutrient cycle because climate change continues.
“We aim to check how this nutrient metric is related to the dynamics of the broad ecosystem throughout the ocean, such as primary productivity,” Gares said. “It further measures such measures can install as a holistic indicator for monitoring the maritime ecosystem as the ocean continues to warm hot and stratification.”
Research was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Martini from NASA, and the DOI Office of Biological and Environmental Research and NASA were grant to Professor Keith Moore in the Department of Earth System.
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