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Why is there a gold rally?
Many factors are running gold record-breaking runs:
Demand for safe haveon: The US trade tariffs and policy uncertainties have increased the appeal of increasing gold as a rescue.
Buying Central Bank: Central banks acquired 1,045 tonnes of gold in 2024, with more than 1,000 tonnes of purchases for the third consecutive year.
Tariff concerns: Reports of potential tariffs on gold have given birth to a crowd to secure physical metal, especially in London, Switzerland and Asia.
Fear of inflation and recession: Governments estimate high fiscal deficit, which can run inflation and increase gold demand in the form of value reserves.
Geophysical uncertainty:
Increasing global stress and economic instability further promoted investors’ interest in gold.
Spot Gold hit a record high recently $ 2,943 an ounce, while Comex Gold touched $ 2,968 an ounce.
Ventura Securities estimates that gold is moving to $ 3,000 an ounce and may soon cross $ 3,080 an ounce.
Headwind to sleep
Despite the strong demand, some factors are reducing the big profit:
Strong US Dollar and Treasury Yields: A flexible dollar and elevated bond yields make gold-like non-yachting assets less attractive.
Federal Reserve Policy: Fed Chair Zerome Powell has not requested any urges in interest rate cuts, which limits the upside of gold.
Inflation and CPI data: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for January was 3.0% year-to-year. A strong CPI report can strengthen the dollar, which can put pressure on gold.
Powell said, “If the economy remains strong and inflation does not move towards 2%continuously, we can maintain policy restraint for a long time.” This means that gold can continue to experience instability, but as long as uncertainty remains rapid.
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