Rai: Rai | Are actor Vijay, AIADMK and BJP coming together to compete with Stalin?

Actor Joseph Vijay’s Tamizha Vatri Kazhagam (TVK) has established himself as an anti -DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) from the beginning, which is the major opposition party, AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) and other political parties including other political parties. Is ready for alliance with. , Vijay’s colleagues from Tamil cinema, who entered politics – such as Kamal Haasan in 2018 and the late Vijayakanth – in 2006 – learned hardly to win the election without forming an alliance with one of the two major Dravidian parties.

For example, in the 2006 assembly elections, actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK (Desia Murpokku Dravid Kazhagam) and Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Nidhi Mayyam (MNM) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections forms the third strength option for both DMK and AIADMK. Introduced into, but no one was made. Any important effect. Vijayakanth’s DMDK received 8% votes in 2006 but won only one assembly seat. But in 2011, when he joined the AIADMK alliance, his party got 28 seats. Recently, Kamal Haasan’s MNM saw disappointing performance in the 2019 and 2021 elections, causing the party to form an alliance with the DMK.

Two biggest parties

Historically, AIADMK and DMK have captured the first and second largest vote share in the state during their worst performance. For example, DMK was the worst election in recent history in 2014, but the party still got 22% of the votes. Similarly, the party got 26% and 30% votes respectively in the worst elections of AIADMK in 1996 and 2004. Third parties have never exceeded their peak singles share share, which outlines the need for an alliance with AIADMK or DMK for any serious political success. This reality explains why Vijay mentioned the possibility of power-sharing in the coalition government in October. However, three months later, have Vijay and AIADMK come close to forming an alliance?

In the last few weeks, two major issues in the state have pointed out a possible coordination between AIADMK, TVK and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) against the DMK.

First, the Anna Versity sexual harassment case gave birth to a series of protests by opposition parties, in which Vijay met the Governor, who is seen as a right -wing ideological colleague and opponent to the DMK. The yatra was scheduled with a large -scale protest organized by AIADMK and BJP’s Tamil Nadu chief Annamalai, who fudged themselves and added dramatic style. All these actions appear to be in line with a common strategy made to embarrass the DMK on an emotional law and order issue.

A general agenda

Shortly thereafter, AIADMK, TVK and BJP reflected each other’s stand by boycotting the upcoming by-election for the East East constituency on 5 February. While AIADMK and BJP accused the DMK of manipulating elections through muscle power. Vijay criticized the ruling party for making fun of the by -election.

It is clear that the three parties share a shared agenda to remove the DMK from power, but the time on sexual harassment cases and by -elections indicates some coordination behind the curtains. Although it was expected, the main question remains: can this coordination mature in a formal alliance?

There are two basic obstacles. First, who will be the main player in such an alliance? Can AIADMK as the major opposition party accept Vijay as its equal or at least equal in terms of seats? If not, can Vijay agree to play the role of a junior partner with his star power? Second, can they include BJP in the coalition given the realities of Tamil Nadu voters?

Why does AIADMK need new friends?

AIADMK needs new energy. And, three consecutive elections- 2019, 2021 and 2024- After decisively losing, he is absolutely needed to win the 2026 assembly elections. In view of the DMK -led coalition in the state, which includes Congress, Left parties and other small groups, former Chief Minister Edappadi. AIADMK, led by Palaniswami, knows that the alliance with Vijay may be required to gain momentum. From Vijay’s perspective, contesting elections alone can be a big risk, potentially good vote share but will not get seats. Additionally, if he contests the election independently and converts the election into a three-way race, he can divide the anti-DMK votes, which will benefit the ruling party.

Given these dynamics, both sides can work hard to reach an agreement. This may eventually be where AIADMK will remain senior partner but will provide TVK a large part of the seats as it will not be able to give much consensus on its leading role. But they may have to leave the face of the face of the Chief Minister’s post for later election.

BJP and DMK

Except for specific areas, facing difficult realities, the BJP remains a marginal power in Tamil Nadu. A large minority vote and a strong ideological, regional and linguistic narrative focused on Dravidian politics makes it difficult for the BJP. There are many large groups within the AIADMK that are concerned with the alliance with it and actor Vijay, whose supporters include several minority groups, must also hesitate to form an open alliance with the party. In many ways, the Dravidian realities for the BJP have not changed much – at least not yet. However, Vijay and AIADMK also know that they will need the Center’s support to challenge the DMK’s election machinery and the state government.

In many ways, DMK dominated in Tamil Nadu is equal to the BJP’s dominance in India. To challenge this in the state, a united and strategic alliance is necessary, which gives all parties a strong incentive to deal with these difficult issues. It is clear that the Backerroom managers are working to form an alliance, and if it is strong, small players may also be attracted to it.

(The author is the executive editor of NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author