US weather agency joins other agencies to predict delay in La Nina

The US weather agency, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), has now joined other agencies in predicting that the emergence of La Niña has been delayed.

In its El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) discussion on Thursday, it said, “ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge and persist during August-October (70% probability) ” Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79 percent probability during November-January).”

Initially, El Nino was predicted to emerge in July, with the CPC giving a 69 percent chance for the weather phenomenon to bring more rain and floods in Asia, especially India. However, last month its probability came down to 65 percent.

The CPC also reduced the probability of La Niña persisting during the Northern Hemisphere winter from 85 percent last month.

delayed development

However, the weather agency, which is a branch of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said its forecast team also favors a delayed development of La Niña this month, “but the transition is expected to occur earlier (August-October) “. This is supported, in part, by near-term forecasts indicating ocean subsurface temperatures continuing below average and a resurgence of easterly wind anomalies in July, the CPC said.

Compared to the previous month, the most recent IRI plume delayed the emergence of La Niña to September–November 2024, after which La Niña persisted during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The most recent plume from Columbia Climate School’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) showed La Niña emergence being delayed until September–November 2024, with La Niña then lasting through the Northern Hemisphere winter, the CPC said.

On Tuesday, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said La Nina weather is likely to emerge only after August.

cooling slows down

It said climate models have suggested that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific are likely to remain cool for at least the next 2 months. “By September, four of seven climate models suggest SSTs are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, and the remaining three suggest SSTs are likely to reach La Niña levels (below -0.8 °C), ” it said in its climate driver update.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the Earth observation component of the European Union’s space programme, said in a press release on Monday that temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific were below average, indicating a developing La Niña. However, air temperatures over the ocean remain at unusually high levels in many areas.

“During June, the rate and extent of cooling at both the surface and depth has slowed,” the BOM said. Cloud and surface pressure patterns are currently ENSO-neutral.”