India’s coffee production for the 2024-25 season starting in October is projected to be slightly affected due to poor pre-monsoon rains, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has said. The upcoming crop for the 2024-25 crop year starting October is likely to be 1 lakh bags less or 6 million bags of 60 kg each, mainly due to the expected decline in the production of Arabica, while the forecast for Robusta is unchanged.
The projected decline in production in India, the seventh largest producer, comes at a time when world coffee production for 2024-25 is projected to increase by 7.1 million bags from the previous year to 176.2 million bags, mainly due to the continued recovery and recovery in production in Brazil. Is. In Indonesia, the USDA said.
Stakeholder views
The USDA estimates India’s colocasia production for 2024-25 at 1.4 million bags, down from 1.5 million bags last year, due to poor pre-monsoon rains. The USDA said in its latest report that robusta production is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6 million bags of 60 kg under normal growing conditions. Also, it forecast India’s bean exports to decline slightly to 4.2 million bags (4.25 million bags last year) due to lower production.
Coffee stakeholders believe that prolonged drought and above normal temperatures during the months of March-May are likely to have an adverse impact on the upcoming crop. Pre-monsoon rains are important for the coffee crop and this year most of the coffee growing areas in the country witnessed a shortage of pre-monsoon rains. USDA India Post had earlier estimated a 3 percent decline in taro yield to 402 kg per hectare and a 2 percent decline in robusta yield to 1,230 kg per hectare due to poor pre-monsoon rains and dry weather. .
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Commenting on the crop prospects, Karnataka Planters Association president KG Rajeev said some clarity on crop setting will emerge in about a fortnight. Coffee growing areas in Karnataka, which account for more than two-thirds of India’s production, saw a 120-day long dry spell during the pre-monsoon period, impacting flowering and crop setting at various locations.
weak monsoon
According to IMD data, major coffee producing districts are witnessing cumulative rainfall deficit in the current monsoon season. Kodagu is witnessing 51 per cent rainfall deficiency and the actual rainfall during the period June 1-24 is 212.9 mm, while the normal rainfall for the period is 437.8 mm. Similarly, Chikkamagaluru is witnessing a 40 per cent deficit and the district has received 158.7 mm rainfall against the normal of 263.9 mm. Hassan is witnessing a deficit of 53 per cent, with actual rainfall during June being 58.6 mm, against the normal rainfall of 123.5 mm, while Wayanad in Kerala, a major robusta producing district in the state, has witnessed a deficit of 58.6 per cent in actual rainfall during June 1. Percentage decrease is being seen. 24 is 220 mm as against the normal 522.9 mm.
Ramesh Raja, president of the Coffee Exporters Association, said no one is clear about crop prospects as the estimates are pre-monsoon estimates, which are generally off target. He said most traders are reluctant to make any crop forecast till September. Commenting on USDA’s export projections, Raja said that if the crop is lower, exports will automatically go down.
Brazil’s combined Arabica and robusta crop is projected to increase by 3.6 million bags to 69.9 million in 2024-25, the USDA said. Brazil’s Arabica production is forecast to increase by 3.3 million bags to 48.2 million and the robusta crop is expected to increase by 300,000 bags to 21.7 million. Production in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, is estimated to be almost unchanged at 29 million bags, while Colombia Arabica production is estimated to increase by 200,000 bags to 12.4 million due to slightly higher yields.
excess supply
Indonesia’s combined Arabica and robusta crop is projected to increase from about 2.8 million bags to 10.9 million bags due to favorable growing conditions, the USDA said.
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With additional supply, global exports are expected to rise by 3.6 million bags to 123.1 million due to strong shipments mainly from Indonesia and Brazil. The USDA said consumption is expected to increase by 3.1 million bags to 170.6 million during 2024-25, while ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 25.8 million after three years of decline.
(TagstoTranslate) Pre-monsoon rains
